As President Recep Tayyip Erdogan of Turkiye approaches what is considered the toughest election of his political career on Sunday, concerns are mounting over the apparent tilt of the playing field in his favor. Erdogan, who has wielded significant influence over the country for the past two decades, has utilized state resources to his advantage, employing populist spending programs and multiple increases in the minimum wage in recent times. Meanwhile, his main challenger, Kemal Kilicdaroglu, struggles to gain visibility, with limited airtime on the state broadcaster. Additionally, the election board overseeing the vote has made contentious decisions in previous elections, often favoring Erdogan. However, despite these advantages, Erdogan’s hold on power hangs in the balance as polls indicate he is trailing behind Kilicdaroglu. The upcoming election not only determines the presidency but also serves as an opportunity for voters to elect a new parliament. With polls open from 8 am to 5 pm, preliminary results could indicate whether a runoff vote will be necessary, as neither candidate is projected to secure over 50% of the vote. Erdogan’s grip on the country, which has led to concerns of democratic erosion and persistent high inflation, may prove to be his Achilles’ heel as disillusioned Turks seek change.
Erdogan’s autocratic tendencies, such as stacking the judiciary with loyalists and curbing free expression, have fueled a desire for the restoration of democracy, as promised by Kilicdaroglu. The closely contested race reflects Turkiye’s complex political landscape, characterized as a hybrid system that falls between a full democracy and an autocracy. Although Erdogan has amassed significant power, the significance of elections within the national identity has prevented a slide into complete autocracy. Nevertheless, the country’s ambiguity is not limited to domestic politics but also extends to its global positioning. Erdogan’s foreign policy, often linked to his personal inclinations, has resulted in a nuanced stance that has left Western leaders questioning his allegiances.
Erdogan’s initial rise to prominence was hailed as a new model of Islamist democracy, with a pro-business orientation and a focus on forging strong ties with the West. However, recent years have witnessed a consolidation of power, marked by mass protests, Erdogan’s transition to the presidency, and the aftermath of a failed coup attempt. Centralizing authority, purging opponents from the bureaucracy, and curtailing civil liberties have drawn criticism from the opposition, who view the upcoming election as a pivotal moment for Turkish democracy. In summary, Erdogan faces a tough electoral battle amidst allegations of an uneven playing field, placing Turkish democracy at a crossroads.