In a stark warning to the international community, the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) has revealed that global temperatures are poised to skyrocket over the next five years. The period from 2023 to 2027 is projected to be the hottest five-year stretch ever recorded, with a 98% likelihood that at least one of these years will surpass the temperature record set in 2016, momentarily breaching the critical threshold of 1.5 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels. This alarming temperature surge is primarily attributed to the accumulation of heat-trapping greenhouse gases (GHGs) and the onset of an El Niño event in the eastern Pacific Ocean, which is expected to fuel further warming in 2024. The WMO’s latest state of climate update, released in Geneva, emphasizes a 66% probability that average temperatures in one or more years between 2023 and 2027 will temporarily exceed the 1.5 degrees Celsius milestone.
While this report does not indicate a permanent breach of the long-term warming targets outlined in the Paris Agreement, it serves as a distress call, underscoring the increasing frequency with which the 1.5 degrees Celsius threshold will be surpassed. The repercussions of this unprecedented temperature surge are far-reaching and demand immediate attention. WMO Secretary-General, Petteri Taalas, expressed concerns over the upcoming challenges posed by the combination of a warming El Niño and human-induced climate change. The implications extend to critical areas such as public health, food security, water resource management, and the environment. Urgent preparations are required to mitigate the potential consequences.
Moreover, the WMO report emphasizes that the annual mean global near-surface temperature for each year between 2023 and 2027 is predicted to range between 1.1 and 1.8 degrees Celsius above the average recorded during the 1850-1900 pre-industrial period. Alongside rising temperatures, human-induced GHGs contribute to ocean heating and acidification, melting sea ice and glaciers, rising sea levels, and intensifying extreme weather events. As the world stands at the brink of entering uncharted territory, the international community must heed this warning, renew its commitment to the goals outlined in the Paris Agreement, and intensify efforts to reduce GHG emissions. Swift action is essential to curbing the looming threat and protecting the planet for future generations.